Technical recession may be averted as European GDP data improves.

Technical recession may be averted as European GDP data improves.

By  Wednesday, 15 February 2012
The Euro received a positive boost late last night as China pledged to invest in Europe’s bail-out funds. The world’s largest holder of the foreign currency confirmed their intentions to sustain their current holding European assets, facilitating Europe to overcome its enlarged debt crisis.

Markets had been unsettled by news of weak US retail sales which were revised downwards yesterday. Equities brushed off the decision from the US rating agency Moody’s on Tuesday to downgrade a number of European countries' credit ratings; banking stocks predominately led London’s blue-chip index lower as it ended the session at 5,899 just 0.1% lower. Economic data published this morning emphasised European recession concerns as the German economy shrank quarter on quarter, although at a slower pace than anticipated. GDP figures came in at -0.2% against a market consensus of -0.3%. French GDP data also released today, produced a positive reading as the French economy grew marginally in the final quarter of 2011, brining annual economic growth to 1.7% for last year.

The governor of the Bank of England is expected to announce the bank's expectations for domestic inflation at 10:30 today. Mr King is likely to suggest that inflation will continue to fall throughout the year as unemployment and low wage growth remains precarious.

The CPI index fell to 3.6% yesterday while many economists suggest that inflation could now fall below the BoE long term target of 2% by the end of the year. Markets will also be focusing their attention on the Federal Open Market Committee minutes released this evening.

David Michael

David is a member of Reyker's Wealth Management team. Having graduated with a first class honours in Financial Services, he provides analytical research across a range of sectors. David is a member of the Chartered Financial Analyst Society of the UK.